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"Growth in a Time of Debt", also known by its authors' names as Reinhart–Rogoff, is an economics paper by American economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published in a non peer-reviewed issue of the ''American Economic Review'' in 2010. Politicians, commentators, and activists widely cited the paper in political debates over the effectiveness of austerity in fiscal policy for debt-burdened economies. The paper argues that when "gross external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP", a country's annual growth declined by two percent, and "for levels of external debt in excess of 90 percent" GDP growth was "roughly cut in half." Appearing in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008, it provided support for pro-austerity policies. In 2013, academic critics demonstrated that the paper used flawed methodology, and that the underlying data did not support the authors' conclusions. Consequently, its critics hold that this paper led to unjustified adoption of austerity policies for countries with various levels of public debt.〔〔〔http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53243/〕 However, further papers by Rogoff and Reinhart,〔http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.26.3.69〕and the International Monetary Fund,〔http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/index.htm〕 which were not found to contain similar errors, reached conclusions similar to the initial paper, though with much lower impact. ==Political influence== In their critique of Reinhart and Rogoff's paper, University of Massachusetts Amherst economists Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin pointed out that "Growth in a Time of Debt" was influential on the United States Republican Party's budget proposal "The Path to Prosperity" (commonly referred to as the "Paul Ryan budget"): RR 2010a (in a Time of Debt ) is the only evidence cited in the "Paul Ryan Budget" on the consequences of high public debt for economic growth. Representative Ryan's "Path to Prosperity" reports (Ryan 2013 p. 78):A well-known study completed by economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart confirms this common-sense conclusion. The study found conclusive empirical evidence that gross debt (meaning all debt that a government owes, including debt held in government trust funds) exceeding 90 percent of the economy has a significant negative effect on economic growth. Olli Rehn, EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs, in his address to the International Labour Organisation on April 9, 2013, used the Reinhart-Rogoff paper to argue that "public debt in Europe is expected to stabilise only by 2014 and to do so at above 90% of GDP. Serious empirical research has shown that at such high levels, public debt acts as a permanent drag on growth." British Member of Parliament George Osborne (who became Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2010) relied on the paper to portray excess debt as the universal cause of financial crises: "As Rogoff and Reinhart demonstrate convincingly, all financial crises ultimately have their origins in one thing."〔 〕 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Growth in a Time of Debt」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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